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Since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out politics is now a primary driver.

China has indicated that it is 100% going to retake Taiwan. Their threat is credible. There were indications it would be soon.

War is a 'new reality' again and we can see the consequences of it.

If you have geopolitical liabilities and you have 10 year strategic planning, then you calculate the odds of 'major conflict' the diversifying away from China is a priority.

Anyone not divesting from China right now is going to get rocked.

Not fully divested but I mean the critical things. We have to plan for China arm of the business dissapeaering overnight.



Your little rant seems to have missed that these companies are still owned by Foxxconn and Luxshare. And while Foxxconn may be Taiwanese both the company and the owner are on very very friendly terms with China, which is unlikely to change.

The world didn't start with 2022 Ukraine(even the Ukraine conflict didn't magically begin in 2022), most of these conflicts started long before Ukraine. The Indian foreign minister also tried to remind the world that it's foolish to try to make everything about Ukraine(see minute 2:30) and yet people don't seem to want to understand the viewpoints of the other 5 billion[1].

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2EdQD_Eag0


Thankfully your little ranty response doesn't change the thesis at all.

If a war broke out between Taiwan and China - Vietnamese operations would be able to continue irrespective of Foxxcon's ownership. Which is the whole point.

The Indian foreign minister's comments are irrelevant in this context, and he's foolish to not contemplate the gravity of the war in Ukraine which has rattled the entire world economy. Actually, not 'foolish' just greedy: he wants to support Putin buy buying cheap Oil, and needs Russia to not be too close to China.

India, politically, is turning into a vile place, which is sad because there's been so much hope for them. Maybe they'll come back.

Russia->Ukraine is an invasion of the 2cnd largest Army in the world, of a relatively modern (if corrupt), large nation in Europe, directly connected to the EU, that has geopolitical implications the world over, as we've seen. Russian Defence Minister has declared that 'The Soviet Unions is Back' and their intentions to expand the Russian Empire into other countries. They've been trying to disrupt NATO nations (i.e. Latvia) for some time, and of course have their eyes on the Georgia and the 'Stans'. That affects everyone.

There has not been a war affecting major powers in a very, long time. Iraq and Afghanistan (and are not) geopolitically very important. Neither was the Iran/Iraq war.

Those wars could happen while the world watched and tried to figure out 'what to do' i.e. 'intervene' or 'not take sides' etc. but those wars are not going to spill out into the world economy.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is existential, just like a war between China and Taiwan is a 'hugely significant war' that will rattle the global economy like nothing we've seen in decades.

It will involve the US likely directly meaning world's #1 and #2 forces, both nuclear and huge trading partners, and likely include Korea, Japan, Australia, maybe Canada as well. Possibly Europe.

The result could shift the world order in the same way that Russian/Ukrainian invasion is i.e. Asians will be forced to pick sides in the cold war: USA/Japan/Korea/Australia/Europe ... or be Chinese vassal. Or try to fanatically figure out an in-between path, which maybe only India has the power to do.

Those with foresight would have seen this impending reality 10 years ago (see: Kevin Rudd, former Australian PM leading the Asia Society in US) but only now it's become very evident. And FYI it's actually quite rare that we can predict a war so early on - only when you have a kind of foreign policy that's really consistent over time is this going to happen.

And so: big companies realign. Those who don't are likely to pay a price.

China's #1 foreign policy goal is to take Taiwan and they are going to use all of their resources to try to do it.


India is overrated. It will never go to wars. so US should up ties with the Pakistan and Afghanistan, Remember its pakistan that defeated Russia in Afghanistan and also defeated America in Afghanistan with US AID. They have more caliber to defeat the next super power.

If Biden is smart, he should up the relationship with Pakistand and Afghanistan. its deadly combo


Pakistan didn't 'win' anything. They have an extremely corrupt, dysfunctional and quixotic military and spy appartus to the point where nobody knows how's in charge.

The West doesn't make it's partnership decisions so much about who can hold out in a war across their borders.

India is a quixotic place, but not a bad one. I don't think anyone expects them to 'go to war' for anything, and neither Pakistan nor Indian soldiers I think are prepared for real action beyond their borders (though no doubt they'd fight in their own defense or against each other).

Really it'd just be good if India wasn't buying Russian Oil opportunistically.

That's an 'active' choice they have made, to 'increase' business with a bad actor.

It's opportunistically selfish.

Everyone realizes the dangers that Russia poses to it's neighbours, and some really don't give a smack, it's one thing to 'watch and do nothing' another thing to 'help'.




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