Agreed, this post completely misses how the power dynamics of wealth affect the opinions and 'rationality' of players. It also never mentions how a whole section of society would be unable to take part in this system due to their socioeconomic status.

Are you opposed to futures markets for commodities, currencies, stock prices, etc. on the same grounds?

Sometimes I think opposition to prediction markets is just opposition to markets in general, which is fine, but a very broad critique.

That's an interesting question. Markets facilitate the emergence of inventive structures, and some of but not all of those are definitely misaligned with the well being of many, many people. Look at critiques of GDP as the primary measure of national economic success. Look at fossil fuel and agriculture subsidies that are literally feeding climate change. Look at the way ad tech markets have infringed on democratic processes, on privacy, on peoples' mental health. These are glaring examples of what you're talking about.

Tell me how it's at all okay that the same banks who are dabbling long on water futures are also invested in building a tar sands pipeline across the Mississippi river and straight into the Lake Superior watershed. Conflict if interest is an understatement. These organizations act like total automatons and are practically beyond control except through inventive systems. If we just let them go on with this behavior vaguely in the name of "markets", I think that's dangerous. We're missing a collective opportunity to say "no, that's not how we want the incentives to align and it's time to adjust them".

If I was gonna generalize, I think I'd prefer more to get generally frustrated with uncritical application of technologies of incentivization, especially with games that so clearly tempt injustice, yet that powerful people rationalize regardless as being the only viable way to go.

Maybe they are hedging pipeline failure and clean up costs with water profit...

This exchange was nice.

What are alternatives to markets? Government direction of all economic developments? AI overlord telling everyone what to build and exchange? What if I want wheat bagels for my labor and we're locally optimized for pumpernickel?