Things like CNAs are a small (important, but small) portion of what we're deeming "essential workers" in this pandemic.

The definition includes a vast set of un-credentialed workers; people at meat packing plants, grocery stores, cleaning staff, etc.

(Again, there will be licensed CNAs not working due to the cost of things like daycare. Raising wages changes that calculus, too.)

They're not perfectly elastic, but they're not inelastic either.

As an example, NYC was offering $10k/week for travel nurses. It's clear that pay can drive labor supply, even if it's not perfect.

Yes. Travel nursing (high pay, short-term contract) has been a thing for decades.

Just because it's been a thing for decades doesn't mean it instantly fixes demand in this case.

And the fact that a quick google search is showing new travel nurse jobs posted a week ago in new york, despite their curve dropping a couple months ago, is telling. It seems like they were unable to meet demand with that program.

There are always travel nurse jobs open in NYC. The nature of a short-term contract is that there's always churn.

They are not always $10k/week.

All you've shown is high demand, not the market meeting that demand.