Why use a real-world example if it's not going to be based on data? Surely if the numbers are correct that there's 60-70% accuracy with the cone (on any particular day? or possibly early on) then they could use real data.
It also starts with "The National Hurricane Center publishes graphics like this one" (with "graphics" directly linking to a different graph than the one shown [1]) which would lead one to believe it was an actual NHC example being challenged.
The general point can still get across but its just important to choose your anecdotes carefully if you want to be taken seriously.
Especially in the hyper-critical social media age when everyone is looking to kick anything popular down a peg or two, for their own personal satisfaction of being smart (or w/e the motivation is).
This is extreme. Why use a real-world example? Because people can relate to it. People have seen these types of plots. It could have been a completely fabricated example of an arbitrary hurricane in Florida or Canada or whatever - the point would still be the same. I feel like people are completely missing the point of the article.
Also, my question is : what are the wrong lessons that this article teaches?
A whole lot of people who are the target market for this article would likely have experienced the same hurricane. Not giving the peanut gallery easy reasons for dismissal is something to be considered.
> Surely if the numbers are correct that there's 60-70% accuracy with the cone (on any particular day? or possibly early on) then they could use real data.
I've noticed this as well. In reality, outside the cone seems to happen pretty regularly. So far outside the cone that it is significant as a practical matter is much more rare, at least in terms of the 48 hour cone.
> Especially in the hyper-critical social media age when everyone is looking to kick anything popular down a peg or two, for their own personal satisfaction of being smart
The author isn't a forecaster. The author is exemplifying a problem with the chart by using a 2017 hurricane example.
Unless I am missing something?